Bipartisan Bill Seeks to Restrict Prediction Market Contracts on Federal Platforms

Representatives Steven Horsford and Mark Amodei introduced the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act in July 2026, and the measure targets federally registered platforms that offer certain event contracts. The legislation would bar companies such as Kalshi and Polymarket from listing sports and casino-style contracts, and it seeks to route those activities back under state and tribal regulatory frameworks.

Core Provisions of the Proposed Legislation

The bill closes what sponsors describe as a federal loophole that allows prediction markets to operate outside traditional gaming oversight. It prohibits the offering of contracts tied to athletic events or casino games on any platform registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, while preserving the ability of state-licensed operators to handle those markets under their own rules. Supporters note that the change would restore primary authority to states and tribes that already regulate gaming activities within their borders.

Consumer protection forms another stated goal of the measure. Proponents argue that uniform state-level standards would give regulators better tools to verify age requirements, prevent fraud, and address problem gambling concerns. The legislation also addresses revenue considerations, with estimates indicating that states could recover more than one billion dollars annually in taxes and fees currently directed elsewhere.

Sponsors and Legislative Context

Steven Horsford, a Democrat from Nevada, and Mark Amodei, a Republican from the same state, filed the House version as the companion to an earlier Senate proposal. Nevada’s long-standing role in gaming regulation gives both lawmakers direct experience with state oversight systems, and their joint sponsorship signals an effort to build cross-party support. The bill has drawn endorsements from the American Gaming Association and several labor unions that represent workers in regulated gaming facilities.

Observers note that the timing aligns with broader discussions about how federal derivatives rules intersect with state gaming laws. Because prediction markets have expanded their contract offerings in recent years, state officials have raised questions about tax collection and regulatory consistency across jurisdictions.

Potential Effects on Existing Platforms

Platforms currently registered at the federal level would need to adjust their product lines if the bill advances. Contracts on sports outcomes and casino-style events would shift to state-regulated channels, while other event contracts unrelated to gaming could remain available under federal oversight. Industry participants have begun reviewing compliance pathways, and some have signaled they will monitor legislative developments before making operational changes.

State gaming commissions and tribal regulatory bodies stand to gain clearer authority over markets that previously operated in a gray area. This shift could simplify enforcement for state attorneys general and allow gaming control boards to apply existing licensing and auditing procedures to a wider range of offerings.

Industry Reactions and Revenue Considerations

The American Gaming Association has expressed support for the legislation, citing the need for consistent regulatory treatment across all forms of gaming. The organization’s statements emphasize that regulated state frameworks already include consumer safeguards and tax collection mechanisms that prediction markets have operated outside of in some cases. Labor unions representing casino employees have similarly backed the bill, pointing to potential employment stability in licensed venues.

Revenue estimates attached to the legislation highlight more than one billion dollars in annual collections that states could capture once oversight returns to their level. These figures include direct taxes on wagers as well as licensing fees and related economic activity. State budget officials in jurisdictions with established gaming industries have begun modeling the impact of expanded authority over these contract types.

Next Steps in the Legislative Process

The House bill now moves through committee review alongside its Senate counterpart. Lawmakers will hold hearings that allow testimony from platform operators, state regulators, and consumer advocates. Amendments may address implementation timelines or carve-outs for specific contract categories, and the outcome will depend on the level of bipartisan consensus that develops during markup sessions.

Because the measure affects platforms already registered with a federal agency, coordination between the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and state regulators will become necessary if the bill passes. Legal analysts expect guidance documents and rulemaking procedures to follow enactment, clarifying how existing federal registrations interact with new state responsibilities.

Conclusion

The Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act represents a direct effort by members of both parties to realign regulatory authority over certain event contracts. Sponsors frame the legislation as a means to strengthen state and tribal oversight, safeguard consumers, and recapture tax revenue that currently bypasses traditional channels. As the bill advances through Congress, stakeholders across the gaming sector continue to assess its implications for platform operations and regulatory compliance.